Gibsblog
Professor Allen Lichtman has predicted every presidential election since 1984 and the professor has always been right with his predictions.
The renowned Professor of history at American University, doesn’t use polling, demographics or sophisticated analysis of swing states. He makes his predictions based on 13 true/false statements that he says indicate whether the incumbent party will retain the White House or lose it in a given election.
He said:
This is perhaps the most difficult prediction I’ve had since 1992, Whatever you may think of Hillary Clinton, she’s no John F. Kennedy or Franklin Roosevelt.
That means this election will be decided by the two keys hanging fire: The contest key, No. 2, and the foreign policy success key, No. 11. It will not be decided by the debates, the speeches, the ads, the tricks of the campaign.
The polls are often wrong. Let me give you the example of 1988. I predicted the 1988 election in May of 1988, when George H.W. Bush was 17 points behind Michael Dukakis in the polls. I wrote in Washingtonian magazine: “Forget the polls, forget the pundits. Not only is George Bush going to win, he is a shoo-in to win. Because as weak a candidate as he is, he’s running on the Ronald Reagan record of peace and prosperity, and the Democrats can’t beat that, particularly with a conventional candidate like Michael Dukakis.” So if you’re going to go by the early polls, you’ll be right most of the time, but you’ll also be wrong a significant part of the time. Remember, the polls are only a current snapshot. They are not predictive.
This is a difficult election to predict, which is why I haven’t predicted it yet, but it’s not an impossible election to predict.
The world is waiting to see what happens on 8th November 2016.
Who do you think would win this election?
Clinton
No comments:
Post a Comment